Derby Day and More…

So much excitement I think my head might explode.  Let’s get right to it.

Whether you’re a racing fan or not, if you care enough about sports to be reading this you probably have at least a passing interest in the most recognizable horse race of the year.  With the news that Morning-Line favourite I Want Revenge is scratched, Friesan Fire will likely be the top choice on the tote board.  I’d toss out Mr. Hot Stuff, Advice, Mine That Bird, Join In The Dance, Atomic Rain, Nowhere To Hide and Flying Private, leaving 12 very good 3-year-olds to sort out:

THE LOW PRICED FAVOURITES

Friesan Fire – The favourite in advance wagering on Friday, when I Want Revenge was still on the board.  Big race in the slop to blow away Papa Clem in the Louisiana Derby, but otherwise hasn’t faced off with as many top horses as some of the other contenders.

Dunkirk – Followed up a visually stunning Allowance win with a solid second to Quality Road in the Florida Derby.  Only three career races, no 2-year-old starts and no works at Churchill are some red flags.

Pioneerof The Nile – King of the California horses comes to Churchill with no experience on dirt, but Gomez had many choices to ride and stayed here which says something.

General Quarters – The feel-good story of the Derby, as 75-year-old Tom McCarthy’s only horse makes it to the Derby with a legit shot.  Switches to Julien Leparoux off a good win in the Bluegrass Stakes, climbed from a 20-1 ML to 5-1 in advance wagering friday.

Chocolate Candy - Closed for a strong second in the Santa Anita Derby behind POTN, switches to Mike Smith who will wait to unleash one big move late.

Hold Me Back - Comes in off strong races at Turfway and Keenland (closing well behind General Quarters), but showed little in only race on dirt.  Unsure after a middling work at Churchill.

THE PLAYABLE LONGSHOTS

Papa Clem – Came off the loss to Friesan Fire to win the Arkansas Derby in a stretch-drive slugfest with Old Fashioned.  Has good tactical speed and could be in a good spot if the early pace isn’t too hot.

Desert Party – The top half of the Dubai pair lost his last warmup to Regal Ransom, though many explain that away with an inside-speed biased track on Dubai World Cup day.  A popular outsider pick to win.

Regal Ransom - Expected to set the pace with Join In The Dance, was thought of as the rabbit for Desert Party until the win in the UAE Derby.  I doubt he can wire this field, but crazier things have happened.

Musket Man - Strong late move to win in Tampa followed by a strong win at Hawthorne, can’t be discounted.

West Side Bernie - Had an easier time than I Want Revenge at the Wood, but still couldn’t catch him.  The figure was big though, and showed a surprisingly good finish.

Summer Bird – Closed well to finish third in the Arkansas Derby.  Only three career races, only one big race, but shows a good late kick and if the pace gets too hot could be a factor with the extra furlong to work with.

So how does it play out?  The early track at Churchill is sloppy, so we’ll see how that changes and affects the field come 6pm.  Of the favourites I like Friesan Fire, Dunkirk and General Quarters the best, while Papa Clem and Summer Bird are my favourites of the second group.  If I had to pick one without thinking of odds I’d take Freisan Fire, but I personally wouldn’t play any of the favourites at less than 5-1 to win and I think he’ll be much lower than that.  General Quarters likely won’t be worth the investment either if the advance wagering is any indication, and it remains to be seen what happens to Dunkirk’s odds without IWR in the field.

My likely wagers – a token win bet on Papa Clem, as well as Dunkirk and General Quarters if I like the odds.  Maybe one of the other longshots if they drift really high.  I’ll probably play a trifecta with Friesan Fire and General Quarters on top of a mix of the others I mentioned.

Predicted running order – Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Papa Clem, Summer Bird, Dunkirk.  Likelihood of being wrong on all of them – 99%.

After that it’s the ultimate bounty of sporting goodness, with the Celts-Bulls Game 7 (I like the Celts by 5), Canucks-Hawks Game 2 (Canucks 4-2) and Manny Pacquiao beating up “There’s only one” Ricky Hatton.  I can’t say anything else, only that this day will be a beauty – hope you all enjoy it!