Today marks a day I have been waiting to come for almost 6 months, George St. Pierre vs. BJ Penn.  It seems like only yesterday I was throwing back my first beer during UFC 93 and now I am already back to give you my always spot on predictions! Right now I am 4 for 9 on my predictions but don’t worry, I will go 100% tonight (wink wink nudge nudge).

As always, I will only discuss the fights that are going to be televised and give you the leg up on your boy, girl, or like me, imaginary friends, that you have bets against for the fights tonight.

Main Event: 170lbs George ” I need a new nickname” St. Pierre vs. BJ “Lil’ Buddha” Penn

Finally, a fight people can get excited for!  The #1 welterweight in the world vs. the #1 lightweight in the world.  Although this is a dream match up, I hate how it came to fruition. I will do a quick recap for those of you that may not know.  After GSP decimated, in my eyes, his biggest competition in Jon Fitch, fat little BJ waltz’s into the ring like he often does and stops the celebrations early.  He then continues to let Dana White and the rest of  the world know that he not only doesn’t respect anything except Hawaii but he also thinks 3 seconds is long enough for GSP to find his next opponent, himself.  I truly think the UFC treats their Welterweight champion poorly and this is just another example of that treatment. First you make a reality show where any dude who can beat some other nobody’s gets the chance to become the welterweight champion.  Then you let a loud mouthfrom ANOTHER weight division walk in to the Octagon and challenge your champion 3 seconds after he just went 5 rounds with a REAL contender.  If this pisses me off, imagine what it did to St. Pierre.  

Keys to victory:  I don’t think there is a bigger polar opposite of two fighters then that of Penn and St. Pierre.  Penn does a lot and I mean A LOT of trash talking and gloating, while GSP does his talking IN the cage (imagine that) and never gloats.  I think this fight is going to come down to 1 of 2 things, conditioning or a weak chin.  If it comes down to conditioning I HAVE to give this fight to GSP.  He is a super athlete and probably the best conditioned fighter in the game. While BJ on the other hand is not known for his conditioning and regardless if hes not a fatty coming into this fight, I think he’ll still be gassed if this baby makes it to the third round. The second option is the questionable chin of GSP and you can thank Matt Serra for that question even arising.  BJ Penn is a great boxer, so this makes it even tougher for St. Pierre and his shaky chin.

And the winner is:I have always been a believer that the more trash you talk the more scared you are so…GSP 4th round TKO!  EFF YOU BJ!!!

205lbs: Lyoto “Defence” Machida vs. Thiago “Scary as hell” Silva

I am very excited for this fight as well, you have another two fighters that are just about as different as two guys could be.  Machida and Silva are both 13-0 and Brazilian but that is where the similarities end.  Machida is a very quiet and VERY elusive fighter with knock out power and some crazy ass karate skills.  While Silva is a really effing scary dude that isn’t scared to take a chance and punch your head off into the 4th row.  I think this fight is under rated by most fans and will end up being a wicked brawl that might be fight of the night.

Keys to victory:  Machida  isn’t going to surprise anyone with his tactics in this fight because he is such a calculated and elusive fighter, it would be stupid for him to change up anything now.  If you haven’t seen this guy fight before get ready for something you may never seen from anyone else.  He comes off boring but for hardcore fans he is a big time pleasure to watch. With his elusive defensive style he really annoys fighters until they snap and make a mistake.  Silva on the hand, pressures fighters into making mistakes by scaring the shit out of them and then capitalizing with repeated punches to the face, just ask Houston Alexander.

And the winner is: Machida submission round 3.

205lbs: Stephan “American Psycho” Bonnar vs. Jon “Who” Jones

Fresh off a suspension from alleged steroid use, Bonnar looks to reclaim his glory days in possibly his last fight in the UFC.  If you have watched the UFC before, you should almost thank Bonnar, he was one half of a fight that probably saved the UFC.  Back in ‘05, two weird looking dudes went at it for 3 rounds in one of the most exciting fights I have seen in the 8 sided cage and one of those weird dudes was Bonnar.  Since then he has gone 5-2 in the octagon before getting suspended and this is his first fight back and I believe he has to win it to stay in the UFC.  Now Bonnar’s opponent, Jon Jones, is another story and its a story I don’t know.  I have honestly never seen this guy fight but I do know he is 7-0, so that’s something right?  From what I have read he likes to punch people and pretty effectively too, out of his 7 wins, 5 of them are by way of KO’s from punches.   If he can end this fight by KO punches, I will move Jones into my Facebook top 5 favourite fighters because Bonnar has a chin made of effing granite.

Keys to victory:  Bonnar NEEDS this win plain and simple. Steroid suspensions are bad and losing after one is even worse because it makes you look like you need the juice to win fights.  If he can stick to his nick name and be a true psycho again I believe he can beat whats his name and come close to reclaiming his spot as gate keeper in the UFC. Jones, nobody knows who you are, so go out there and make them remember you.  Like I said before, Bonnar is an animal with a crazy chin so go for his legs or arms or anything, just hit him hard.

And the winner is:  Bonnar by unanimous decision.

155lbs: Nate “Nasal” Diaz vs. Clay “Crazy ass” Guida

Ever since he appeared on season 5 of the ultimate fighter, I have had a man crush on Diaz.  He’s a shit talker and a he backs it up and I love that about him and his brother.  Diaz actually won season 5 of TUF and all of his fights so far in the UFC and is looking like he may be a contender in the lightweight division very soon and he is fighting one of the gatekeepers tonight, Clay Guida.  If you haven’t seen this guy fight then you have seen heart, Guida is a lion and I mean that just as much for his crazy ass hair as I do for his relentlessness and heart.  This guy puts the pressure on his opponents and NEVER stops, his fight with movie star Roger Huerta was a crazy battle.  He ended up losing the fight in the final round by submission but if it went to the cards that fight would have been a draw because it was a war. 

Keys to victory: There is no doubt both these guys are in GREAT shape, so cardio won’t come into play for either of them.  Guida is a pressure man and Diaz seems to get better as the fight gets tougher, so it might work against Clay if he pressures too hard and gets caught in one of Nate’s crazy ass submissions.  Guida does have one thing going for him though and that would be Nate’s overconfidence.  He is known to leave his chin exposed and I don’t think that is from lack of training as much as it from him thinking he can’t be knocked out.  Guida will definitely have to either win by KO or decision because once this baby hits the mat its all Diaz.

Winner: Diaz 3rd round choke out.

170lbs: Karo “Heat” Parisyan vs. Dong Hyun “Stun Gun” Kim

I’ll be honest, I HATE Karo Parisyan and I really have NO idea why the UFC keeps him employed.  He is SO boring, never trains and I don’t think he’s lifted a weight in his life.  Actually, after writing that first sentence I refuse to go on anymore about this crappy fight:

And the winner is: Anybody not watching. Judo throws for 3 rounds until Kim wins by decision and HOPEFULLY it is Karo’s last fight.

Well that’s all folks!  Hopefully my predictions will fair better than in the past and you will all win any bet you make. 

Peace!

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